METR and UK AISA: AI Capability Growth Past Exponential Inflection Point
Two independent AI safety evaluation organizations—METR and the UK AI Safety Institute—have separately concluded that AI capability growth has passed the pre-exponential inflection point and entered a super-exponential growth phase. Both assessments align on the finding. There is no established adaptation framework for organizations or governments operating at this pace of change. The assessment aligns with the UK AISI's concurrent finding of a 4.5-month cyber capability doubling time.
Why It Matters
Super-exponential growth means planning assumptions based on historical AI progress timelines are already outdated. Organizations should treat near-term capability projections as conservative lower bounds, not central estimates.